Diamonds and Dogs
Crystal BallsIn 1966, the government estimated the cost of Medicare would be roughly $12 billion in 1990. The actually cost in 1990 came in way over $100 billion and in 2002 the expenditures from the US government was $256 billion dollars. When the government makes long-term predictions about the cost of wars, healthcare reform, social security solvency, pension reform, etc. we should all take it with a big hunk of salt. Stocks are faltering a bit today, but even with the negative news from CSCO and rioting in the UK; you may have thought they would have fallen more. The bulls, backed by the Bernanke put of QE2, appear to still be in charge and my predicted sell-off in November has yet to materialize. We are keeping an eye on long term interest rates that are trading at a near term high, even with the Fed breathing down their backs.
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