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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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Day Traders Diary

6/6/14

The major averages finished the first week of June on an upbeat note with small-cap stocks leading the charge. The Russell 2000 gained 1.0%, extending its weekly advance to 2.7%, while the S&P 500 added 0.5% to finish the week higher by 1.3%.
Stocks spent the first 90 minutes of action in a steady climb, while the remainder of the session saw range-bound action just below the highs.
The early charge took place after the Nonfarm Payrolls report confirmed that recent trends in the labor market remain intact. Specifically, the addition of 217,000 payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 220,000) reflected a gradual improvement in the labor market, while the participation rate remained low (held at 62.8%), and hourly earnings grew modestly (+0.2%).
The middle-of-the-road report was not weak enough to cause concerns about the overall economy, but it was also not strong enough to lead to concerns about faster policy tightening from the Fed. As such, equity indices continued on their recent course.
After showing relative weakness over the past few weeks, small-cap stocks outperformed their blue chip counterparts. As a result of the increased risk tolerance among investors, the Russell 2000 rallied 2.7% this week, finishing well ahead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which added 1.2%.
Fittingly, growth-sensitive sectors paced today's advance with five of six cyclical groups ending ahead of the broader market. The industrial sector (+1.0%) finished in the lead, while energy (+0.8%) and financials (+0.7%) followed.
Industrials received broad support from transports and defense contractors. The Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.9%) extended to a fresh record high, pushing its year-to-date gain to 10.9%. Defense contractors, meanwhile, were underpinned by General Electric (GE 27.18, +0.41). The largest sector component rose 1.5%, while the PHLX Defense Index climbed 0.8%.
Elsewhere, the energy space was boosted by Dow component ExxonMobil (XOM 101.60, +1.05), which rallied 1.0%. Another Dow member, Chevron (CVX 124.19, +0.67), kept pace with ExxonMobil during the session, but narrowed its gain to 0.5% into the close. For its part, crude oil added 0.3% to $102.77/bbl.
Also of note, the financial sector extended its weekly gain to 2.3%, solidifying its spot atop the leaderboard. The industrial sector was the only other group to add more than 2.0% for the week (2.2%), while the remaining cyclical groups advanced between 1.2% and 1.8%.
On the countercyclical side, the telecom services sector (unch) lost 1.2% for the week, while consumer staples (+0.3%), health care (-0.1%), and utilities (-0.4%) posted respective weekly gains of 0.3%, 0.7%, and 0.7%.
With stocks ending on their highs, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 10.78, -0.90) got crushed again, cratering lower by 7.6% as participants did not see the need to hedge their risk exposure. The near-term volatility measure ended at its lowest level since early 2007.
Treasuries displayed some intraday volatility, but finished the day little changed. The 10-yr note slumped ahead of the jobs report, but rallied immediately after. The gains did not hold as the benchmark note slipped back to lows over the course of the session. The 10-yr note shed three ticks with its yield rising one basis point to 2.59% after notching a low at 2.53%.
Once again, participation was well below average with 629 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Taking another look at today's data:
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 217,000 (Briefing.com consensus 220,000)
April nonfarm payrolls were revised to 282,000 from 288,000
Total private payrolls increased by 216,000 (Briefing.com consensus 230,000)
April private payrolls were revised to 270,000 from 273,000
The unemployment rate held at 6.3% (Briefing.com consensus 6.4%)
The U6 unemployment rate, which also accounts for marginally attached workers and people employed part-time for economic reasons, dipped to 12.2% from 12.3%
Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%)
The average workweek was 34.5 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.5)
Consumer credit increased a robust $26.80 billion in April from an upwardly revised increase of $19.50 billion (from $17.50 billion) in March. That April figure was well above the Briefing.com consensus estimate of $15.00 billion.
Revolving credit increased by $8.80 billion, from $861.60 billion to $870.40 billion, suggesting consumers were doing more purchasing with credit cards
Once again, though, it was non-revolving credit that led the increase, surging $18.00 billion to $2,304.60 billion from $2,286.60 billion
Monday's session will be free of noteworthy economic data.

S&P 500 +5.5% YTD
Nasdaq Composite +3.5% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.1% YTD
Russell 2000 +0.1% YTD All comments contained herein are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The firm does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information or make any warranties regarding results from it's usage.