Check the background of this firm on FINRA's BrokerCheck.

Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

Check the background of this firm on FINRA's BrokerCheck.

Day Traders Diary

10/5/18

 

The stock market fell on Friday as bond yields continued to climb following the release of the Employment Situation report for September. The S&P 500 and the Dow lost 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.1%.

At its session low, the S&P 500 was down 1.1%, falling below its 50-day moving average for the first time since July. The market eventually gathered its footing though, closing near the middle of the day's trading range.

The Employment Situation report for September was mixed from a headline standpoint, as nonfarm payrolls showed a below-consensus increase of 134,000 (Briefing.com consensus 184K), but the August increase was revised upward to 270,000 (from 201K). Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, as expected, and the unemployment rate fell to from 3.9% to 3.7%, marking its lowest level since 1969.

U.S. Treasuries extended their weekly losses following the release of the jobs report, pushing yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield advanced one basis point to 2.88%, and the benchmark 10-yr yield jumped three basis points to 3.23%, extending its weekly gain to 16 basis points and marking its highest close since 2011.

In corporate news, Costco (COST 218.82, -12.86) lost 5.6% despite reporting above-consensus earnings, and Tesla (TSLA 261.95, -19.88) dropped 7.1% after CEO Elon Musk seemingly mocked the SEC in a late Thursday tweet, just days after agreeing to a settlement with the agency over securities fraud allegations stemming from his failed bid to take the company private.

Reviewing all of Friday's economic data, which, in addition to the September Employment Situation report, included the August Trade Balance and the August Consumer Credit report:

  • September nonfarm payrolls increased by 134,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 184,000. The prior month's increase was revised to 270,000 from 201,000. Nonfarm private payrolls rose by 121,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 180,000. The previous month's increase was revised to 254,000 from 204,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), while the previous month's increase was revised to 0.3% from 0.4%. The average workweek was reported at 34.5 (Briefing.com consensus 34.5). The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9% in August (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%).
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the labor market is solid and still simmering with the prospect of pent-up wage pressures being unleashed at any point as employers encounter difficulty in finding qualified workers.
  • The August trade balance report showed a deficit of $53.2 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$52.6 billion). The July deficit was revised to $50.0 billion from $50.1 billion.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it has yet to confirm the tariff actions are succeeding in cutting the trade deficit in a big way; moreover, with the third quarter real average trade deficit 8.9% higher than the second quarter average, trade will be accounted for as a negative input in Q3 GDP forecasts.
  • The Consumer Credit report for August showed an increase of $20.1 billion, and July credit growth was unrevised at $16.6 billion.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects a pickup in credit demand that should be construed as an offshoot of a strengthening economy led by a solid labor market.

Looking ahead, investors won't receive any notable economic data on Monday.

Week In Review: Stocks Fall As Yields Surge

The S&P 500 fell 1.0% this week, weighed down by a surge in bond yields, which rose to multi-year highs in front of Friday's release of the Employment Situation report for September. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed, losing 3.2% and 3.7%, respectively, but the blue-chip Dow finished flat.

Stocks began the week on a positive note, boosted by Canada joining Mexico and the United States in a trade agreement. On Sunday night, Canada agreed to allow greater dairy market access to the U.S., while also capping its automobile exports to the States. The deal, also known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaces the 24-year-old NAFTA deal between the countries. However, Congress still has to approve the deal, which likely won't be easy.

Investors awoke to continued Italian drama on Tuesday, when Italy's anti-establishment government defended its plan to increase the country's budget-deficit target despite pushback from the EU. In addition, Claudio Borghi, who leads the economic policy of the ruling Lega party, claimed that most of Italy's problems could be solved if the country had its own currency -- although that idea was dismissed by Italy Deputy Prime Minister Di Maio.

However, on Wednesday, Italy's government decided to cede to some of the EU's budget demands. Italy's budget-deficit target will be reduced from 2.4% of GDP in 2019 to 2.2% in 2020 and then to 2.0% in 2021.

That news helped push bond yields higher overnight. Yields then extended those gains significantly after the September ADP Employment Change report -- a prelude to Friday's nonfarm payrolls reading -- showed an estimated 230K positions were added to private sector payrolls -- well above the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 184K. The ISM Services Index for September also came in better-than-expected on Wednesday, hitting a record high of 61.6% (Briefing.com consensus 58.2%), clearly indicating that business activity in the service-providing sector of the economy is strong.

Yields continued to advance on Thursday and then again on Friday following the release of the Employment Situation report for September. The report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls (134K actual vs 184K Briefing.com consensus), but the August increase underwent a notable upward revision (to 270K from 201K). As for the rest of the report, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), the average workweek was reported at 34.5 (Briefing.com consensus 34.5), and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9%.

The key takeaway from the September jobs report is that the labor market is solid and still simmering with the prospect of pent-up wage pressures being unleashed at any point as employers encounter difficulty in finding qualified workers.

Looking at this week's S&P sector standings, most groups finished in negative territory. The consumer discretionary sector led the retreat with a loss of 4.2%, and information technology (-2.0%) and communication services (-2.0%) also showed relative weakness. On a positive note, the influential financial sector advanced 1.7%, benefiting from rising yields and, more specifically, a steepening of the yield curve. The benchmark 10-yr yield jumped 16 basis points in total, closing Friday at 3.23% -- which marks its highest level since 2011 -- while the 2-yr yield jumped five basis points to 2.88%.

In corporate news, General Electric (GE) replaced CEO John Flannery with former Danaher CEO Larry Culp; Tesla's (TSLA) CEO, Elon Musk, agreed to settle charges with the SEC, in which Mr. Musk and Tesla are to pay $20 million each, and Mr. Musk is to step down as chairman for three years; Amazon (AMZN) announced that it will be raising its minimum wage to $15 an hour for all U.S. employees, pressuring other retailers to do the same; and General Motors (GM) announced that it will be partnering with Honda Motor (HMC) to build autonomous vehicles.

 

    •  

Headlines provided by Briefing.com

All comments contained herein are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The firm does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information or make any warranties regarding results from it's usage.