Day Traders Diary

1/3/23

The markets started the new year to the downside giving up earlier gains, as concerns such as rising rates, high inflation and slowing economy that knocked the market down last year continued to trouble investors in the new year.

The S&P 500 fell 0.40% to close at 3,824.14 slipping from highs of the day when December's manufacturing index declined at the fastest pace since May 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 10.88 points, or 0.03%, to 33,136.37 as shares of Boeing offset losses. The Nasdaq Composite shed 0.76% to 10,386.99.

Shares of Tesla and Apple both slipped, weighing on the broader market and carrying forward a main theme from 2022, when the technology sector was hit hard as the Federal Reserve raised rates to fight inflation. Tesla fell 12.24%, hitting its lowest level since August 2020, following disappointing fourth-quarter deliveries. Apple shed 3.74% on reports that it will cut production due to weak demand.

The sentiment may continue in 2023 as the central bank is poised to continue to hike interest rates in the coming months, stoking fears that the U.S. economy may fall into a recession.

"A recessionary environment in 2023 could further hamper tech stock performance in the new year, as investors' thirst would increase for value oriented companies and those with higher profit margins, more consistent cash flows, and robust dividend yields," wrote Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments in New York.

The major averages closed 2022 with their worst annual losses since 2008, snapping a three-year win streak. The Dow ended the year down about 8.8%, and 10.3% off its 52-week high. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% for the year and sits more than 20% below its record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 33.1% last year.

Of course, there may be brighter days ahead. History shows the U.S. stock market tends to rebound after down years. In fact, the S&P 500 has, on average, rebounded by 15% in the next year following a year where it lost more than 1%.

Investors are getting a bundle of data in the first trading week of the year that will give further information on the state of the economy.

On Tuesday, the U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing came in lower than expected, signaling the fastest slip since May 2020. Later in the day, construction spending for November ticked up slightly, showing that the industry may be recovering.

Wednesday is a big day with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS, due out in the morning and the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting set to come out in the afternoon.

They're also looking forward to Friday's December jobs report, the final employment report the Fed will have to consider before its next meeting on Feb. 1. There are also several speeches by Fed presidents scheduled Thursday and Friday.