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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

8/8-8/12/11

August 12, 2011
U.S. stocks opened with robust gains on Friday after an encouraging report on retail sales in July bolstered sentiment ahead of consumer-confidence data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 126 points to 11,117. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 12 points to 1,185. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 15 points to 2,508. So far so good this morning. It's good to have two up openings back to back. On the earnings front, rare earth metal Molycorp is jumping 14% thanks to strong earnings. Chipmaker, Nvidia is jumping 10% following strong earnings. The other chips, however, are not participating. HP is up 2% on an upgrade. Akamai Tech was upgraded, but the stock is lower. In the retail space, things are mixed. JC Penney is trading lower following earnings. Nordstrom and Red Robin Gourmet are higher following earnings. Anheuser Busch is jumping 6% on an upgrade. At 10 o'clock, a weak consumer confidence number let the wind of the sails of this rally. The Nasdaq fell into the red and the Dow gave up most of their gains before rebounding. The commodities are holding steady. Through the morning the averages slowly improved picking up steam into the lunch hour. The Dow rose 160 points led by Boeing, Caterpillar, Disney, and Chevron. The financials are not participating. The Nasdaq rose 24 points. In the afternoon the averages moved sideways for the most part. Pretty boring day since we're used to 400 points swings the previous four days. In the last hour the averages held up closing about a percent below last Fridays' close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 125 points, or 1.1%, at 11,269, losing 1.5% for the week. It was the fifth straight day of triple-digit point swings for the Dow, a feat not achieved since January 2010. The S&P 500 gained 6 points to 1,178, down 1.7% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 15 points to 2,507, off 1% for the week. What a week. One I'm not ready to repeat anytime soon.

August 11, 2011
U.S. stocks leapt at Thursday's start after a surprising fall in jobless claims curbed worries about the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 164 points to 10,884. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 17 points to 1,138. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 52 points to 2,433. On the earnings front, Cisco Systems is leading the charge up 14% following better than expected earnings. The techs in general look pretty good. Apple is once again the largest market cap company in the U.S.. Other companies trading up following earnings include News Corp, Advance Auto, Jack in the Box, Wendys, Manulife, and Brinker. Stocks trading lower following earnings include Soda Stream and Briggs Stratton. With the recent pullback, more and more insiders are buying their stocks. The list includes UAL, Rambus, Mylan Labs, GM, Corning, AK Steel, and SM Energy. All seven are trading higher. Through the morning, every dip was met by more buying. That's a good sign. The commodities are performing well this morning except for gold. The CME Exchange is raising margin requirements for gold and silver traders sending those commodities lower. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages kept rising up 200 points, then 300 points back above 11000 for the year. Didn't think that would sound so good. Very few stocks are in the red. The dog of the day goes to the recent highflyer Soda Stream down 35% following disappointing earnings. Heading into the last hour the Dow rose as much as 400 points. In the last hour the Dow actually rallied over 500 points to get back everything we lost yesterday, only to drop 100 points into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 423 points, or 4%, at 11,143, with all 30 components up. First time in history, the Dow closed up or down 400 points in four consecutive days. The S&P 500 ended up 51 points, or 4.6%, at 1,172. The Nasdaq Composite gained 111 points, or 4.7%, to 2,492. Crazy market

August 10, 2011
U.S. stocks started sharply lower Wednesday as worries about the global economy weighed heavily after the prior day's rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points to 10,919. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 31 points to 1,140. The Nasdaq Composite Index lapsed 68 points to 2,413. So much for yesterday's rally. On the earnings front, Disney is down 12% following a miss on their sales numbers. Computer Science, Macys, and SunPower are also lower following earnings. A few bright spots in the market following earnings include Cree up 14% and Polo Ralph Lauren up 8%. Other than that, not much is trading higher. Through the first hour the averages pushed lower. Plenty of upgrades this morning, but they certainly are not helping. The stocks trading lower that received upgrades include Sandisk, Goldman Sachs, Lorillard, Altria, Allstate, Under Armour, Cisco, Pfizer, Mosaic, and VMware. After the first hour the Dow dropped 400 points and the Nasdaq declined 90 points. I think we've seen this movie before. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages tried to rebound with little success. A few stocks have peaked into the green including some commodity stocks like Molycorp, Agrium, and briefly Cliffs Natural Resources and Freeport McMoran. The banks have not little success at any rebound. Heading into the last hour the selling accelerated with the Dow dropping back down over 300 points. Not a good sign. In the last hour, the selling accelerated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 519 points, or 4.6%, to 10,719, near its lows of the session, after a late-day spiral. Tuesday's 430-point gain and Monday's 635-point loss were the third straight session of swings topping 400 points. The last such streak was in late November 2008. The S&P 500 fell 51 points, or 4.4%, to 1,120. The Nasdaq Composite fell 101 points, or 4.1%, to 2,831.

August 9, 2011
U.S. stocks opened sharply higher on Tuesday as Wall Street reclaimed a piece of the prior day's massive loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 128 points to 10,938. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 15 points to 1,135. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 38 points to 2,396. Plenty of upgrades this morning which is good, but market psychology is ruling this market. There hasn't been a specific catalyst for this morning's bid in equities, so the move can simply be attributed to exhausted selling and bargain hunting after some extreme volatility. Additionally, there may be an element of a pre-FOMC bid, with some expecting the committee to address the recent market volatility. Most stocks are bouncing back after getting slammed yesterday. A few stocks are lower once again today including Fossil down 20% following disappointing earnings. Dish Networks is also lower following earnings. Through the first hour the averages vacillated back and forth, but remained strong. That's a good sign. After the first hour the Dow was up 200 points. The Nasdaq rose 70 points. So far so good. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages moved sideways near the highs of the day. In the afternoon heading into the Fed meeting, the averages started to pull back. The Fed's statement was rather depressing indicating that the economy will remain weak for an extended period of time. The Fed indicated they would leave rates at a low level until mid-2013. That's not a good sign. The Dow rose 200 then dropped into the red by 70 points only to rebound to the unchanged level all within 10 minutes. After that first 10 minutes the averages moved lower once again. Over the next hour, into the last hour, the averages slowly improved rallying over 100 points. In the last 40 minutes, the averages kicked into overdrive, rallying 200, then 300, then 400 points into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 429 points, or 4%, at 11,239, its steepest rise since March 2009 and a recovery from a more-than 200 point intraday loss. The S&P 500 added 53 points, or 4.7%, to 1,172, also its best performance since March 2009. The Nasdaq Composite added 124 points, or 5.3%, to 2,482.

August 8, 2011
U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Monday as Wall Street got its first chance to react to Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. Announced Friday night, the rating agency's decision followed an especially nasty week for equities, heightening the chances of "a very bad initial reaction," wrote analysts at Barclays Capital in a Monday note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 193 points to 11,250. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 22 points to 1,177. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 63 points to 2,468. Individual news like upgrades and downgrades mean nothing today as market psychology is to sell first and ask questions later. In the first hour the averages wobbled about. In the Dow, only Proctor and Gamble was higher. At the end of the first hour the selling accelerated with the Dow falling 357 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declining 45 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down107 points. The selling is especially severe in financials and commodity stocks. Through the morning and into the afternoon the bounces were small and met with aggressive selling. In the afternoon the Dow fell 500 points, the S&P 500 fell 67 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 150 or 6%. The surging VIX index or the fear gauge is up 39% illustrates the growing sense of panic. The numbers over the last several weeks are staggering. The S&P 500 is now down 16% over 11 days, representing a relentless period of selling in the broad market. Deleveraging is picking up as hedge funds sell losing positions, which often exacerbates pressure in less-liquid securities that they typically look to capture a liquidity premium in. Financials are extremely weak with Bank of America down 18%, Citigroup down 16%, and Morgan Stanley down 13.4%. Also, today's action can be viewed as much more than a response to the S&P downgrade. While the S&P downgrade added some bad news to an already fragile market, it didn't bring about any new revelations about the state of the U.S. fiscal situation. Instead, the action in equities can be viewed as a downgrade of the U.S. and global economic outlook, doubt about the flexibility of the U.S. to deal with a weaker economy and the spillover effects from Europe, and a general sense of fear about the uncertainty that encompasses all of that. While most would agree the market is oversold on a near-term basis, such extreme volatility and fear makes it extremely difficult to gauge how things will play out over the coming days. In the last hour the selling accelerated. No buyers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 634 points, or 5.6%, to 10,809, its worst one-day point and percent loss since Dec. 1, 2008, near the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, and the first close below 11,000 since October, 2010. The S&P 500 shed 79 points, or 6.7%, to 1,119, also its worst day since Dec. 1, 2008. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 174 points, or 6.9%, to 2,357.69, its worst percentage loss since Dec. 1, 2008. U.S. stocks opened with robust gains on Friday after an encouraging report on retail sales in July bolstered sentiment ahead of consumer-confidence data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 126 points to 11,117. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 12 points to 1,185. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 15 points to 2,508. So far so good this morning. It's good to have two up openings back to back. On the earnings front, rare earth metal Molycorp is jumping 14% thanks to strong earnings. Chipmaker, Nvidia is jumping 10% following strong earnings. The other chips, however, are not participating. HP is up 2% on an upgrade. Akamai Tech was upgraded, but the stock is lower. In the retail space, things are mixed. JC Penney is trading lower following earnings. Nordstrom and Red Robin Gourmet are higher following earnings. Anheuser Busch is jumping 6% on an upgrade. At 10 o'clock, a weak consumer confidence number let the wind of the sails of this rally. The Nasdaq fell into the red and the Dow gave up most of their gains before rebounding. The commodities are holding steady. Through the morning the averages slowly improved picking up steam into the lunch hour. The Dow rose 160 points led by Boeing, Caterpillar, Disney, and Chevron. The financials are not participating. The Nasdaq rose 24 points. In the afternoon the averages moved sideways for the most part. Pretty boring day since we're used to 400 points swings the previous four days. In the last hour the averages held up closing about a percent below last Fridays' close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 125 points, or 1.1%, at 11,269, losing 1.5% for the week. It was the fifth straight day of triple-digit point swings for the Dow, a feat not achieved since January 2010. The S&P 500 gained 6 points to 1,178, down 1.7% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 15 points to 2,507, off 1% for the week. What a week. One I'm not ready to repeat anytime soon.