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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

9/19-9/23/11

Sept 23, 2011
U.S. stocks declined Friday with Wall Street on alert for indications policy makers would take additional steps to bolster the global economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63 points to 10,670. The S&P 500 Index dropped 4 points to 1,125. The Nasdaq Composite declined 4 points to 2,451. The decline is not as bad as initially feared as a few buyers stepped. The financials are rallying even though a number of them had their estimates cut. Discover is up for a second straight day following strong earnings yesterday. Visa and MasterCard also look good. The chip space also looks good. Texas Instruments is up 2% following an upgrade. Xilinx, Rambus and Altera are higher on upgrades. Intel and Micron also look good this morning. Maxim was downgraded, yet the stock is higher. Elsewhere in tech, HP is making news firing their CEO of 11 months replacing him with Meg Whitman the former CEO of EBay. That stock is not rebounding down another percent at a six year low. The rest of the big cap techs look good. Through the first hour the averages improved led by the financials and techs. In the retail space, Finish Line and Nike are up over 5% following earnings last night. UBS upgraded a number of retailers including American Eagle. Under Armour is up 2% on an upgrade. Tiffany continues to perform well. McDonalds is higher after hiking their dividend last night. Christopher and Banks is one of the few retailers trading sharply lower following earnings. The commodities are still struggling. Mosaic is down 5% after preannouncing quarterly guidance. Agrium and Potash are lower as well. Through the morning the Dow rallied as much as 50 points before pulling back. The Nasdaq is up 22 points. The recent safe haven, gold continues to get hit down 4% today and down 10% from the highs back to where we started August. In the afternoon the Dow gave up its' gains while the Nasdaq remained in the green. A number of techs remain in the green including the chip stocks. The financials are also in the green which is another good sign. In the last hour all the major averages moved into the green to end a lousy week. The Dow average finished up 37 points at 10,771, recovering a sliver of the prior session's 391 point drop. For the week, the blue-chip index lost 6.4% as investors sought cash on slashed expectations that the Federal Reserve and European policy makers would be able to quickly stabilize the global economy. The S&P 500 rose 6 points to 1,136, led by consumer discretionary and financial sectors, but lost 6.5% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 27 points, or 1.1%, to 2,483, losing 5.3% for week.
Sept 22, 2011
U.S. stocks open sharply lower following the Fed's comments indicating there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook. These comments also sent the major averages around the World down 3% to 6% overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 353 points to 10,771. The Standard & Poor's 500 fell 36 points to 1,130. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 75 points to 2,462. Not much looks good this morning. Red Hat had strong earnings and actually is trading up 4%. Bed Bath and Beyond is actually higher as well following strong earnings. The retail space in general is holding up. Best Buy is trading higher. Interestingly, Best Buy's stock symbol is similar to Bed Bath & Beyond. DSW and Decker Outdoors were upgraded, but both stocks are lower. Urban Outfitters is down 3% on a downgrade. Vail Resorts is down 8% following earnings. The financials are lower surprise, surprise. Bank of Montreal is down 4% following earnings. Discover is actually modestly higher following earnings. The techs are holding up or trying to hold up. Yahoo is modestly higher on an upgrade. Broadcom was upgraded, but the stock is down 4%. Intel is only modestly lower on an upgrade. Through the first hour the averages tried to rebound with only limited success. Through the morning the averages made new lows. Honeywell reaffirmed numbers, but it isn't helping. The stock is down 5%. FedEx beat estimates, but the stock is getting hit by 8%. Investors are in a selling mood. In the afternoon the averages remained weak. Every rally is met by more selling. The Dow fell over 500 points and the Nasdaq dropped 100 points before recovering a little in the last hour. Into the close, finally the shorts started to cover. The Dow average finished down 391 points, or 3.5%, at 10,733, its biggest loss since Aug. 18. All 30 Dow stocks ended lower. The S&P 500 fell 37 points, or 3.2%, to 1,129. The resource and energy sectors suffered the most among the index's 10 groups, declining more than 5% each. The Nasdaq Composite lost 82 points, or 3.3%, to 2,455.

Sept 21, 2011
U.S. stocks opened mildly higher Wednesday as investors took a tentative stance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's policy statement later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 27 points to 11,435. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 3 points to 1,205. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 22 points to 2,612. Once again the rally is being led by the techs. Oracle and Adobe are trading up over 3% following better than expected earnings. The other big cap techs look good including Apple, Google, IBM, and Intel. Autodesk is higher on an upgrade. Microsoft raised their dividend last night by 20%, yet the stock is trading lower. Outside the tech space, things don't look so good. The commodities are getting clobbered. Cliffs Natural Resources is down 5%. Freeport McMoran is down 4% as well due to a strike at one of their mines and lower recent copper prices. The coal stocks are taking it on the chin. Alpha Natural Resources and Walter Energy are both lower by over 6% due to lowered guidance today. Arch Coal and Patriot Coal are lower in sympathy. The transportation stocks are also getting hit as less coal means less railroad business for Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. Not a good sign. Only the oils in the commodity space seem to be holding up. Through the first hour the rally fizzled once again. The Dow fell into the red while the Nasdaq held on to modest gains. Now all we got it the Fed comments out later this afternoon to help save the markets. Through the morning the Dow remained in the red while the Nasdaq held on to modest gains. One stock showing some life is HP, trading up 6% on rumors the CEO will get fired. During the lunch hour the banks took a hit thanks to Moody's downgrading the debt of Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Can the news get any worse? The techs are the only sector holding up. In the middle of the afternoon the Fed announced their new initiative to lower long term rates with operation twist. The averages initially sold off, then rebounded, then sold off once again. A few techs are in the green and that's about it. In the last hour the selling accelerated. Here we go again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 283 points, or 2.5%, at 11,124. The S&P 500 fell 35 points, or 2.9%, to 1,166. The Nasdaq Composite lost 52 points, or 2.01%, to 2,538.

Sept 20, 2011
U.S. stocks started higher on Tuesday, rebounding from the prior day's decline, even as S&P cut Italy's debt rating last night. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 24 points to 11,425. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 2 points to 1,206. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 4 points to 2,617. The strength once again is attributed to the tech space. Apple is at another new all time high. The chip space continues to perform well. Arm Holdings is jumping 3% on an upgrade. Cypress Semi and Micron are higher on upgrades. Intel is also higher. Xilinx is one of the few chip related stocks trading down after lowering guidance. Netflix keeps dropping after lowering guidance last week. The stock is now down 55% since the July highs. The financials opened higher, but then sold off. Jefferies is up 2% following better than expected earnings. JP Morgan and Travelers are modestly higher on upgrades. UBS and the rest of the European banks are lower as China is limiting their trading with the region. The commodities also opened higher, but then sold off. Potash is down 2% on cautious analyst comments. Deutsche Bank made positive comments on a number of oil related stocks including Noble Energy. That stock is up 2%. The rare earth stocks are taking it on the chin. Molycorp is down 18% following a downgrade. Through the first hour the averages gave up their gains only to rebound strongly. Following the first hour the Dow shot up over 100 points led by the techs. The Nasdaq rose 22 points. Part of the rally is due to a weaker US dollar. The Fed is also expected to announce a new strategy tomorrow to help the economy. Keep your fingers crossed. In the afternoon the averages remained strong, but off the highs. The commodity sector is not participating in the rally except for a few oil stocks. Most financials remain unchanged. Not everything is rosy today. In the afternoon the rally fizzled with the commodity space getting hit. Even Apple is succumbing to selling pressure. In the last hour more profit-taking as the Nasdaq dropped into the red and the Dow's gains whittled down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 7 points at 11,408. The S&P 500 shed 2 points to 1,202. The Nasdaq Composite declined 22 points to 2,590.

Sept 19, 2011
U.S. stocks open sharply lower for the first down day in six, weighed by indications Greece was on the brink of default. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 165 points, or 1.4%, to 11,440. The S&P 500 lost 17 points, or 1.4%, to 1,199. The Nasdaq Composite fell 24 points, or 1.6%, to 2,580. The markets are concerned that a Greek default looks to be imminent causing all the major banks to move lower. The European banks likes Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Credit Suisse are all lower by 3% or more. Our banks are not fairing too much better with the major banks down 2 to 3% each. Stifel made positive comments on Capital One, yet the stock is lower by 2%. The insurance stocks are getting hit as well. The commodities are also taking it on the chin due to fears of an economic slowdown. Suncor Energy was upgraded, but the stock is lower by 4%. The techs performed well last week however they're getting hit this morning. The chips in particular rallied nicely last week. FBR analyst made positive comments on the sector. Micron and Broadcom were upgraded this morning, yet they are all trading lower. Oracle and Juniper Networks are lower on downgrades. Through the first hour the averages pushed lower with the Dow dropping 230 points and the Nasdaq declining 50 points. Both averages are lower by 2%. A few bright spots this morning with Goodrich is jumping 12% on rumors United Tech is close to acquiring the firm. Bristol Myers is up half a percent on an upgrade. The housing numbers out this morning were awful, but for some reason Lennar is trading up 3%. Netflix is bouncing back 4% after getting hit last week. Through the morning the averages remained weak near the lows of the day. President Obama spoke to hike taxes on the rich to pay for his stimulus plan, but the markets are not reacting. A couple of bright spots in the tech space. Amazon is trading at a new 52 week high. Apple looks great rebounding into the green making a new 52 week and all time high. Apple is working, at the expense of pretty much everyone else. A few other stocks are trading in the green including GM, Dunkin Donuts, and Pimco High Yield Closed end Bond Fund. In the last hour comments out of Europe that Greece may get more money from the EU to avoid a default brought a nice short cover rally to the markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 108 points at 11,401. At its lows, the Dow was down nearly 254 points. The S&P 500 lost 11 points, or 1%, to 1,204. The Nasdaq Composite fell 9 points to 2,612.