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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

11/7-11/11

November 11, 2011
U.S. stocks began Friday with robust gains as Italian bond yields fell following the Italian Senate's approval of austerity measures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 207 points to 12,101 with all 30 of its components gaining ground, led by Walt Disney, up 6.6%, after the theme-park operator reported quarterly profit that exceeded expectations. The S&P 500 Index added 17 points to 1,256, with financials gaining the most among its 10 industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 27 points to 2,653. It's been a pretty good week excluding Wednesday. All the sectors are performing well. The financials do well when Europe moves to the back burner. MetLife was downgraded, but the stock is higher. Region Financial is higher on an upgrade. The commodities are performing well outside rare earth stocks. They've come back down to earth. Molycorp is down 12% even though the company reported record blowout earnings. Sell the news. The techs look good except for a few. Apple sold out of their 4S iphones in Hong Kong in just three hours, but the news hasn't impressed investors. Apple is one of the few techs trading lower this morning. Nvidia is down a percent following strong earnings last night. The rest of the chips look good. Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia are higher by 2% this morning. Through the first hour the averages shot higher. The Dow rose 240 points. The Nasdaq rose 40 points. Disney is leading the Dow higher thanks to strong earnings. Brookfield Asset and DR Horton are higher following earnings. In the retail space, things are mixed. Dillard is down 6% even though they easily beat estimates. Tim Horton is up 3% on an upgrade. Activision Blizzard is lower even though their new video game is selling like hot cakes. Through the morning the averages remained strong near the highs of the day. Even Apple moved back into the green. About time. In the afternoon the averages continued to move sideways on light, light volume. The Dow remained up 270 points. The Nasdaq rose 50 points even with Apple back in the red. A great week if you exclude Wednesday.

November 10, 2011
U.S. stocks opened with robust gains Thursday with Europe's situation seemingly less dire after Italy's bond auction went better than expected and the U.S. government reported another drop in weekly jobless claims. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 114 points to 11,895. The S&P 500 rose 13 points to 1,242. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 22 points to 2,643. It's actually been a good week excluding yesterday's bombshell. Yesterday's 400 points drop reminds us that the European debt crisis remains the lead story. Luckily today the news out of Europe has subdued with Italian bond yields pull back. On the earnings front Cisco is leading the charge up 6%. The techs in general look good except for Apple. For some reason Apple has lagged recently. Intel is higher even though one analyst made cautious comments about inventory. Research in Motion is also lower making a new 52 week low. The commodity space is rebounding, but not by much. The financials are modestly higher following the lack of news out of Europe. UBS and the other European banks look good. MBIA and Stifel are higher following earnings. It's all or nothing with the financials. Plenty of news out of the retail sector. Advance Auto Parts, Tim Horton, Viacom, and Kohls are higher following earnings. Chipotle Mexican Grill and Polo are higher on upgrades. GM is higher following disappointing earnings the other day. The dog of the day goes to Green Mountain Coffee down 29% following earnings. From March to now, Green Mountain's stock went from $46 a share to a $110 back to $46 a share. That's a round trip. Through the first hour the averages gave up some of their gains particularly the techs. Apple is down 2%. Google is also higher, but Cisco is holding strong. The commodities have also pulled back along with a couple of banks like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. After the first hour the averages drifted lower with the Nasdaq falling into the red. A couple more stocks are trading higher following earnings. MAKO Surgical and Huntington Ingalls are both up over 4% following earnings. Merck looks good up 2.5% after hiking their dividend 10%. The stock has actually performed well trading just under its 52 week high, but thanks to the hike in the dividend the yield is up to 4.8%. That's good risk reward. Heading into the lunch hour the averages rebounded led by the Dow. The techs remain weak except for Cisco. In the afternoon the Dow surged once again, rallying over 100 points. The Nasdaq remained near the unchanged level due to a 2.5% decline in Apple. Apple seems to have lost its' mojo. In the last hour the averages were able to hold on to their gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 112 points, or 1%, at 11,893, led by a 5.7% gain in Cisco Systems. The S&P 500 rose 10 points to 1,239. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 3.5 points to 2,625.

November 9, 2011
U.S. stocks opened with steep losses on Wednesday after a clearing house hiked the deposits needed to trade Italian government bonds and index-tied securities, further worsening Europe's credit mess. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 227 points to 11,943. The S&P 500 shed 27 points to 1,248, with energy and financials leading the losses among its 10 sectors. The Nasdaq Composite lost 61 points to 2,665. So much for our rally. Everything is getting hit this morning with good news translated into bad news. Stocks trading lower following better than expected earnings include Activision Blizzard, Amdoc, Sina, Weight Watchers, Computer Science, Polo Ralph Lauren, Dean Foods, Wendys, Macys, Parker Hannifin, GM, and Liz Claiborne. All twelve stocks are down more than 4%. Not a good day to report earnings. Adobe is down 10% after reaffirming I guess lackluster earnings. Nvidia, Autodesk, and Apple are lower on negative analyst comments. A few stocks are higher following earnings including Soda Stream and Take Two Interactive. Through the first hour the averages pushed lower with the Dow dropped 300 points and the Nasdaq declining 70 points. The volatility continues for the major averages. Through the morning the averages tried to rebound with little success. By the middle of the afternoon the averages pushed to new lows. The commodities were holding up, but are selling off now with everything else as the US dollar rebounds. Heading into the last hour the averages rebounded only to sell off once again in the last hour and into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 389 points, or 3.2%, at 11,780, its worst drop since Sept. 22. All 30 components were lower, led by a 7% pullback in J.P. Morgan Chase. The S&P 500 lost 46 points, or 3.7%, to 1,229, its worst day since Aug. 18. The Nasdaq Composite sank 105 points, or 3.9%, to 2,621, also its worst day since Aug. 18.

November 8, 2011
U.S. stocks opened moderately higher Tuesday ahead of an Italian parliamentary vote viewed as a test as to whether the nation's prime minister would remain in office. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 25 points to 12,093. The S&P 500 rose 3 points to 1,265. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 15 points to 2,710. So far so good this morning. The European markets are higher this morning lending support to our markets. The financials are all trading modestly higher. KeyCorp, Franklin Resources, and Fifth Third are all higher on upgrades. Toll Brothers is jumping 4% on earnings guidance. REIT, Ares Capital is modestly higher on earnings. The techs also look good this morning. Cisco is higher ahead of earnings tonight. Intel, IBM, and Microsoft are all performing well this morning. Raxspace is jumping 5% on an upgrade. Through the first hour the averages improved only to give up most of the gains when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi won a budget vote in Italy's parliament but without a majority, indicating a confidence vote may come next. Through the morning the averages drifted into the red as most stocks gave up their gains. The retail sector is weak this morning. Urban Outfitters, Scots Miracle Gro, Toyota, and Fossil are lower on earnings. Deere is lower on a downgrade. Starbucks was upgraded, but the stock is lower. In the afternoon the averages battled back when the US dollar sold off. News out of Europe indicated the Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi will resign after 2012 austerity plan passes. Are all the European leaders going to lose their jobs? In the last hour the averages accelerated to the upside with the Dow rising 100 points. I'm not complaining. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 101 points at 12,170, with 28 of its 30 constituents rising. Leading gainers were 3M and Wal-Mart Stores. The S&P 500 Index advanced 14 points, or 1.2%, to 1,275, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 32 points, or 1.2%, to 2,727.

November 7, 2011
U.S. stocks edged tentatively higher on Monday, with Wall Street taking a cautious stance while tracking events in Europe, with Italy the current focus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 16 points to 12,000. The S&P 500 Index added 3 points to 1,256. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3 points to 2,689. The news out of Europe is certainly not getting any better. Surprisingly, the averages are higher this morning. The financials, a good barometer for Europe, are holding steady this morning. Jefferies is up 2% as fears ease regarding their European sovereign debt exposure. Keycorp is higher on an upgrade. The techs look good this morning thanks to some positive analyst comments regarding Cisco, Nvidia, and Brocade. All three report earnings this week. Symantec and Juniper were upgraded as well, but both are trading lower. The commodities are trading higher this morning include gold. Fluor is higher on an upgraded. Cliffs Natural Resources and Agrium were downgraded, but both are higher. Louisiana Pacific is modestly higher even though they missed earnings estimates this morning. Through the first hour the Dow rose over 50 points back above 12,000 before pulling back again. The Nasdaq fell into the red as Apple dragged the average lower. On the earnings front, Dish Network, Sysco, and Tesco are lower. Tesco is down 16%. Rosetta Resources is jumping 4% after beating estimates. In the retail space Home Depot and Pier One are higher on upgrades. Home Depot is not far from its' 52 week high. In the transportation space, UPS is higher after announcing 55,000 seasonal hires for the holiday stretch. Finally some good news on the jobs front even if it's temporary. Through the morning the averages drifted lower. Italy takes center stage along with Greece regarding their debt problems. The US dollar is rebounding sending the commodities lower. The markets look more like what people were anticipating on the open. Through the morning into the lunch hour the averages pushed lower with the Dow dropping 100 points and the Nasdaq declining 30 points. Not many stocks are trading higher. Dish Network turned around jumping 4% after announcing a special onetime dividend. Amgen is up nearly 5% after announcing a $5 billion share buyback in a Dutch auction. Heading into the last hour the averages rebounded. In the last hour the rally accelerated. A very good sign. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 85 points at 12,068, led by a 3.4% rally in Hewlett-Packard. The S&P 500 rose 7 points to 1,261. In a last-hour reversal, gains spread to all 10 industry sectors, led by health care and telecommunications. The Nasdaq Composite rose 9 points to 2,695.