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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

7/9-7/13/12

July 13, 2012
Triskaidekaphobia or the fear of the number 13 doesn't seem to be bothering the broader market on this Friday the 13th. U.S. stocks opened higher on Friday, rebounding from the market's longest decline since May, after U.S. and Chinese economic data coupled with earnings reports came in better than some of the more dire forecasts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 60 points to 12,633. The S&P 500 index climbed 7 points to 1,342. The Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points to 2,880. The Dow quickly jumped over 100 points after the open thanks to a 4% rally in JP Morgan's shares as they reported their messy quarter due to the large trading loss caused by the London whale. Wells Fargo is higher as well following earnings. The housing market seems to be one of the few bright spots in the economy. Homebuilders, Lennar and Toll Brothers are higher trading just under their 52 week highs. Every sector is trading higher this morning. In the energy space, Phillips 66 is jumping 3% on news Warren Buffett's management team has been making a position. Brazilian oil giant, Petrobras is higher by 5% on news the company is hiking their diesel prices. Speaking of oil prices, the airlines have performed well of late. JetBlue is higher thanks to an upgrade. In the tech space IBM, Google, and Apple are modestly higher. One analyst actually cut estimates for the Apple iphone. How dare he. Salesforce.com is higher by a percent thanks to an upgrade. The dog of the day in the tech space is Lexmark, down 10% after the company lowered guidance due to weakness overseas. Rival Hewlett Packard is down 3% to a new 52 week low. Through the first hour the Dow pushed higher rallying 150 points while the Nasdaq rose 25 points. Only a few blue chips trading lower like HP, Deere, and Amazon. Speaking of Amazon, a couple retailers are lower. Scots-Miracle Gro is lower after cutting guidance due to the drought across the country. Saks is lower by 2% on a downgrade. Walmart and Target however are making new 52 week highs. Through the morning the averages remained strong pushing to new highs led by JP Morgan and the financials although all sectors continue to perform well. A modest pullback in the middle of the afternoon led to a rebound in the last hour. After six down sessions, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 203 points, or 1.6%, at 12,777, up 0.04% for the week. The S&P 500 index added 22 points, or 1.7%, to 1,356, leaving it 0.2% above last Friday's finish. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 42 points, or 1.5%, to 2,908, off 1% for the week. On to earnings season.

July 12, 2012
U.S. stocks began another down session Thursday, with better-than-expected weekly data on U.S. jobless claims failing to offset worries about the global growth. The report from the Labor Department is "certainly good news and again confirms the muddle-through scenario, the slow-growth scenario for the United States," said Jim Russell, chief equity strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 98 points to 12,506. The S&P 500 index declined 12 points to 1,328. The Nasdaq Composite shed 36 points to 2,851. First the good news. In the healthcare space, Merck is higher by 4% on positive phase 3 results for osteoporosis. Pfizer and Bristol Myers are also trading higher. P&G also looks good in the healthcare space trading up 3% on news a popular hedge fund manager has initiated a stake. And that's about it for the good news today. Supermarket retailer, Supervalu is down 44% after reducing guidance and suspending their dividend. All the grocery stocks are trading lower. Mariott International is down 5% on disappointing earnings last night. Golf retailer, Callaway is down 4% after announcing job layoffs. Lowes is down 2% after one analyst cut estimates. Family Dollar is down 3% on a downgrade. FedEx was upgraded, but the stock is lower. In the tech space Apple, Google, and IBM are getting hit. One analyst made cautious comments on Google's quarterly growth prospects. Lexmark is down 7% on a downgrade. Intel is down 2% on cautious comments. EMC, Nvidia, and KLA Tencor were upgraded, but all three are lower. SAP is bucking the trend as the company upped consensus. The weakest sectors remain industrials, materials, and energy. Chevron is bucking the trend up a percent after raising guidance. Through the morning the averages pushed a little lower before bouncing back into the lunch hour, but the economic news and corporate news is only getting worse. In the afternoon the averages slowly improved with the Dow actually moving into the green thanks to Merck, PG, and McDonalds. The Nasdaq remained stuck in the red due on part to weakness in Apple and other large cap techs. In the last hour the rebound fizzled into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 31 points to close at 12,573. The S&P 500 fell 6 points to 1,334. The Nasdaq Composite slid 21 points to 2,866. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 extended their fall into a sixth day, while the Nasdaq dropped for a fifth session.

July 11, 2012
U.S. stocks began Wednesday with mild losses, with the S&P 500 flirting with a fifth down session, as Wall Street looked to minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting for hints of more stimulus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 26 points to 12,626. The S&P 500 fell half a point to 1,340. The Nasdaq Composite declined 8 points to 2,893. A quiet start to the day following a sharp sell off on Cummins Engines preannouncement. Cummins is down 2%, but the rest of the sector is trying to rebound. The energy space is also performing well thanks to a rebound in the price of oil. Gold is unchanged, but Goldcorp is lower after cutting production. Chevron is higher even as one analyst cut earnings estimates. The defensive sectors are also performing well. Wisconsin Energy is unchanged after reaffirming guidance. The weakest sector which isn't very weak is technology. Apple and Google are lower even as both received positive analyst comments. Apple was upgraded with a $740 price target. SAP is bucking the trend up 3% on an upgrade. EMC is modestly higher on an upgrade. The retail space is mixed this morning. An electronic retailer, hhgregg is down 35% after warnings about earnings for the rest of the year. Rival, Best Buy is down 5% as well. Sears is also lower. Wendy's is higher on an upgrade. One analyst raised earnings for retailer, VF Corp however the stock is modestly lower. Through the first hour and the rest of the morning the averages remain in the red, but not by much. Apple and Google are keeping the Nasdaq in the red. The financials and the energy space are in the green. The rest of the sectors are mixed and quiet ahead of the Fed minutes. In the afternoon the Fed minutes made no mention of QE3 causing the major averages to sell off. Heading into the last hour the Dow fell 100 points as the Nasdaq declined 30 points. Financials, energy, and utilities remain the only sectors in the green. In the last hour the averages had a nice turnaround with the Dow and Nasdaq recovering a lot of the losses getting back to where we were before the Fed minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 48 points at 12,604. The S&P 500 edged fractionally lower to 1,341. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 ended in the red for a fifth session. Off for a fourth session, the Nasdaq Composite slid 14 points to 2,887.

July 10, 2012
U.S. stocks opened sharply higher on Tuesday, rebounding after a three-session losing streak, after European officials moved to bolster Spanish banks and upbeat factory data from Britain and Italy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 89 points to 12,825. The S&P 500 Index added 8 points to 1,361. The Nasdaq Composite rose 20 points to 2,951. Plenty of preannouncements and crummy earnings, yet the major averages are higher. Pretty impressive. First the bad news. Last night chipmaker AMD lowered guidance. AMD is down 5% dragging a number of chip stocks with it. This morning chip equipment maker, Applied Materials lowered guidance. That stock is down 3%. Rival KLA Tencor is lower even though the company hiked their dividend. Rival, ASML is bucking the trend up 7% after Intel agreed to make an investment in the company. Intel opened lower, but then moved into the green. The biggest loser this morning is Mako Surgical down 39% after reducing guidance last night. The healthcare space is mixed this morning. On the earnings front Alcoa started it off with inline results. The stock is modestly lower along with the rest of the energy space. Patriot Coal dropped 50% last night and is halted this morning after confirming rumors they will file for bankruptcy. Only Exxon Mobil is modestly higher. The materials and the industrial space are mixed on a number of downgrades. Tyco, Eaton, Ingersoll Rand, and Louisiana Pacific are modestly lower on downgrades. Shaw Group is down a percent after reporting a loss, but they did initiate a share buyback. Helen of Troy is down 9% after missing estimates by a mile. In the retail space, WD-40 is lower by 6% after missing estimates. Cedar Fair is unchanged after reporting their revenue metrics. JCPenney is down 5% on a downgrade. The new management team doesn't seem to be helping the company much. Two casino operators, Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands are higher on upgrades. Through the first hour the rally fizzled as the US dollar reversed course, moving higher. The Nasdaq fell into the red while the Dow held on to modest gains. The utilities and consumer staples look good. Philip Morris, Altria, and Walmart are trading at new all-time highs. Through the morning the averages sold off only to battle back to the unchanged level into the lunch hour. The markets seems to be waiting for earnings season. In the afternoon the averages were moving sideways until news broke that industrial, Cummins dropped 2% after lowering guidance for the quarter. Through the next hour the averages pushed lower as more industrials sold off. Caterpillar dropped 4%, Deere dropped 3%, and Cummins kept pushing lower falling 9%. The sell-off dropped the Dow by 100 points while the Nasdaq declined 30 points. Even Apple sold off. In the last hour the averages pushed a little bit lower only to modestly rebound into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 83 points to 12,653, led by a 4.1% drop in Alcoa. The S&P 500 fell 10 points to 1,341. Industrials and materials were the worst performing. For both the Dow and S&P 500, it was the fourth session of declines. The Nasdaq Composite lost 29 points, or 1%, to 2,902, its third down day in a row.

July 9, 2012
U.S. stocks tilted mostly down Monday as Spanish yields move higher once again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 27 points to 12,745. The S&P 500 slipped 2 points to 1,352. The Nasdaq Composite rose a fraction to 2,937. Earnings season starts tonight with Alcoa , but once again the news front is quiet. In the healthcare space, Amerigroup is jumping 38% after agreeing to be bought out for $92 in cash from WellPoint. The acquirer, WellPoint is also trading higher which is a good sign. WellCare Health Plans is jumping 18% in sympathy to rival Amerigroup. On a separate note, Questcor Pharma is jumping 15% today up 45% for the year thanks to strong drug sales. Arena Pharma is performing well up 4% on speculation of a possible buyout. The whole healthcare space is trading higher. The other defensive spaces like the utilities and consumer staples are holding up as well. PG, Altria, Philip Morris, and Kraft are modestly higher. Campbell Soup is unchanged after reiterating guidance. The energy and materials are the weakest sectors once again. In the tech space Apple looks good, but everything else is succumbing to profit-taking. Apple has become a defensive play in the tech space. Facebook is actually catching a bid as well. AMD and Intel are lower after an analyst cut their numbers. The financials are lower once again following weakness overseas. JP Morgan is modestly lower ahead of earnings on Friday. Visa and MasterCard are lower by 3% each on downgrades. Wells Fargo and PNC are bucking the trend thanks to positive comments from an analyst. Through the first hour the averages pushed lower giving back everything they gained in the last hour on Friday. The Dow fell over 70 points while the Nasdaq declined 14 points. Through the morning the averages stabilized bouncing off the lows. A few more stocks have moved into the green including the transports. During the lunch hour the averages drifted back toward the lows of the day. Through the afternoon the averages rebound sold off again only to rebound in the last hour. One stock not rebounding is Patriot Coal down 72% on concerns of a pending bankruptcy. The energy sector remains a problem child for the markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 36 points to 12,736, falling for a third straight day in a row. The S&P 500 fell 2 points to 1,352, also down for a third session. The Nasdaq Composite lost 5 points to 2,931.