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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

7/16-7/20/12

July 20, 2012
U.S. stocks opened sharply lower Friday, on track to break three days of gains, even as earnings from the likes of General Electric and Microsoft continue to come in better than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 80 points to 12,867, led by a 1.5% pullback in Bank of America shares. The S&P 500 fell 8 points to 1,368. The Nasdaq Composite fell 14 points to 2,952. The benchmarks are still higher for the week, and, except for the Dow, the month as well. First the good news. A number of companies continue to report strong earnings particularly in the tech space. Sandisk is jumping 14% on earnings. Google is up 3% on earnings. Microsoft is also higher following earnings. To the downside, AMD Rambus, and Xerox are lower on earnings. AMD and Rambus are down over 10%. Even Apple is lower. In the energy space, Schlumberger and Baker Hughes are higher on earnings. Noble Corp is higher by 2% on an upgrade. Diamond Offshore is also higher on an upgrade. SunCoke Energy is jumping 5% on news the company is looking to restructure as an MLP. Brazilian cement maker, Cemex is higher by 2% on earnings. A number of industrials are struggling including Ingersoll Rand down 3% on earnings. Johnson Controls is lower again following earnings the other day. GE is one of the few industrials higher on better than expected earnings. GE is also one of the few financials higher. All the big banks are lower even as the homebuilders trade higher. Lennar is up a percent and a half. The weakest sector this morning is restaurateurs thanks to disappointing earnings from Chipotle Mexican Grill. The stock is down 22% while competitors like Buffalo Wild Wing and Panera are trading down 4%. Another high flyer, Intuitive Surgical is down 6% on earnings and a downgrade. Through the morning the averages battled back as they usually do only to sell back off. During the lunch hour the Dow fell over 100 points while the Nasdaq dipped 35 points even as Google rallied 2%. In the last hour the averages remained weak with only three Dow components in the green. The Nasdaq has Google up 3% and that's about it. The Dow finished up 120 points at 12,822, putting the index down nearly 0.5% for July. The Nasdaq dropped 40 points, or 1.4%, to close at 2,925, for a 0.3% loss for the month of July. The S&P 500 Index closed down 13 points, or 1%, at 1,362, and barely hung onto a gain of less than 0.1% for the month of July. For the week, the Dow closed up 0.4%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.6%.

July 19, 2012
U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday, led by the technology sector and strong results from International Business Machines. Investors are also awaiting several economic reports later in the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 33 points, or 0.3%, to 12,943, with IBM shares up 3.5%. The S&P 500 index climbed 3 points to 1,376, with information technology gaining the most among its 10 industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite gained 20 points to 2,963. The tech sector looks great while the rest of the market is quiet. Besides IBM, we have Qualcomm, Ebay, and Nokia trading up sharply following earnings. Apple, Google, and Microsoft also look good. The weak sectors are getting a bounce today. In the energy space, Noble Corp, Pioneer Natural Resources, and Diamond Offshore are up over 2%. Steel company, Nucor is down 2% after earnings. In the materials space, Freeport McMoran is higher by 3% even though they misses estimates. Johnson Controls is down 7% after missing estimates and lowering guidance. The transports look good thanks to a 3% rally in Union Pacific. The financials are struggling for a second straight day. Morgan Stanley is down 4% on earnings. SLM is also lower by 4%. The big banks are lower to unchanged. BB&T, Keycorp, Huntington Bancorp, Fifth Third, and Blackstone are modestly higher. The defensive space is lower. The utilities and consumer staples are under pressure. Verizon is lower on earnings while PM is higher after beating estimates. This should be a risk on day, but every time the averages try to break out they lose their momentum, but we're still in the green. In the retail space, Sherwin Williams is lower on earnings while Travelzoo.com is jumping 6%. Through the morning the averages remained in the green with the Dow and Nasdaq up 20 points. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages pushed to new highs only to pull back once again. Someone or something is holding back the major averages. In the drug space, Walgreen is surging 12% after the drug-store chain struck a new deal with prescription-drug provider Express Scripts. Through the afternoon the averages remained in the green led by the techs. The financials are under pressure along with the homebuilders and telecom. In the last hour the averages held on to modest gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 34 points at 12,943. The S&P 500 gained 3 points to 1,376. The Nasdaq Composite rose 23 points to 2,965.

July 18, 2012
U.S. stocks opened lower on Wednesday awaiting more comments from the chairman of the Federal Reserve and a flood of earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 42 points to 12,763 while the S&P 500 index fell 3 points to 1,360. The Nasdaq Composite opened down 2 points to 2,907. After the open the averages put in a nice rebound as the earnings are coming in for the most part better than expected. In the financial space Bank of America, Bank of NY, Credit Suisse, and US Bancorp are higher on earnings. Lincoln National and Ameriprise are higher on upgrades. Blackrock, PNC and Northern Trust are modestly lower on earnings. The techs also look good this morning. Fiber optic company, Amphenol is jumping 11% after beating estimates. The cloud computing stocks also look good thanks preliminary earnings and management changes at EMC and VMware. Both stocks are up 8% lifting the whole sector including Redhat and F5 Networks. Chip equipment, ASML and chipmaker, Intel are higher on earnings. Google, Microsoft, and IBM look good ahead of earnings. Ironically, Apple is lower. Through the first hour the Dow rose 50 points while the Nasdaq rose 20 points. Utilities sold off as this seems to be a risk on day. The energy and industrials look good. Honeywell is a diamond up 5% on better than expected earnings. Fertilizer, Agrium is up 3% after raising guidance. Johnson Controls is up 2% ahead of earnings. In the retail space, Stanley Black & Decker is jumping 5% on earnings. Tiffanys is higher by 3% on earnings. Ford and GM are higher on upgrades. Saks is down 3% on a downgrade. Through the morning the averages gave up most of their gains only to rebound to new highs although the financials are not responding. Into the lunch hour the Dow rose over 100 points while the Nasdaq rose 40 points. Pretty impressive rally. Through the afternoon the averages remained strong awaiting more earnings after the close, particularly from the tech sector. In the last hour the averages held on to their gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 103 points to 12,908. The top 5 gainers were tech stocks. The S&P 500 added 9 points to 1,372, led by a 1.9% rise in tech stocks. Financials and consumer staples lagged. The Nasdaq Composite rose 32 points to 2,942.

July 17, 2012
U.S. stock indexes rise modestly on Tuesday's start, with Goldman Sachs and many other firms reporting better than expected earnings. Investors will also be awaiting the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony to Congress at 10 o'clock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 61 points to 12,788. The S&P 500 index climbed 6 points to 1,360. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 15 points to 2,912. The earnings are starting to flood in. Charles Schwab, Coke, Mattel, Forest Labs, M&T Bank, Ameritrade, Comerica, Mosaic, and Goldman Sachs are all trading higher following earnings. Mattel is the diamond up 10%. Unfortunately, a few stocks are lower following earnings. JB Hunt, McMoRan, and J&J are lower after missing estimates. In the retail space, things are mixed. Mattress Firm is down 15% after lowering guidance. All the mattress firms are lower including Tempur Pedic. JC Penney, Home Depot, Lowes, and Deere are lower on downgrades. Urban Outfitter, Disney, Aeropostale, and Chipotle Mexican Grill are higher on upgrades. Through the first half an hour the averages drifted lower led by financials. At 10 o'clock, the averages fell into the red following the release of the Fed minutes detailing slowing global growth and uncertainty concerning Europe. After the first hour the averages rebounded to the unchanged level thanks to strength in healthcare, materials, and consumer staples. Gilead Sciences is higher on an upgrade. Amgen, Merck, and Pfizer are trading at new 52 week highs. After the first hour the averages reversed course as the US dollar rose. The price of oil dropped along with the major averages. Into the lunch hour the averages rebounded once again along with the US dollar. The major averages seem to be moving lock step with the currencies. In the afternoon the averages pushed higher. Entering the last hour the Dow rose 100 points while the Nasdaq pushed up 18 points.

July 16, 2012
U.S. retreated Monday after the prior session's rally after data illustrating U.S. retail sales in June fell for a third month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 53 points to 12,724. The S&P 500 index declined 4 points to 1,352. The Nasdaq Composite fell 9 points to 2,897. A quiet start to a week full of earnings reports. So far this morning Citigroup is higher by a percent after beating earnings estimates. Visa and Mastercard are higher on news of litigation settlement. Wells Fargo is also higher following earnings last week, but the rest of the financials are lower. JP Morgan is down 2% after jumping over 5% last Friday. GE is lower on a downgrade. In the tech space Google and Apple are higher, but the rest of the sector is lower. Investors are cautious ahead of earnings. Texas Instruments is lower on a downgrade. Qualcomm was upgraded, but the stock is lower. NCR is higher on a positive Barrons article. The consumer discretionary sector is lower on slow June sales numbers. Amazon is lower on concerns of pending online sales tax issues. The energy space is lower. Phillips 66 was upgraded, but the stock is lower. The coal stocks continue to struggle. Alpha Natural Resources is down 10% on a downgrade. Through the first hour the averages pushed lower with the Dow falling 75 points and the Nasdaq declining 18 points. In the tech space Google moved into the red ahead of earnings on Thursday. The defensive stocks are performing well. Bonds are also rallying as the 10 year Treasury falls to a new all-time interest rate. Amazing times. After the first hour the averages put in a nice rebound with the Dow and Nasdaq recovering half their losses as the US dollar sold off. This continues a similar theme for July with sell offs on the open followed by rebounds. Through the morning into the afternoon the averages remain in the red, but off the lows. Apple is up a percent preventing the Nasdaq from selling off. Facebook is down 4% back below $30 a share. JP Morgan is down 3%, but the rest of the big banks are holding up. Energy stocks are in the green thanks in part to the rebound in the US dollar. The markets seem to be in a tight range where we rebound on sell offs, but rarely move into the green. In the last hour, the averages drifted lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 49 points at 12,727. The S&P 500 index declined 3 points to 1,353. The Nasdaq Composite lost 11 points to 2,896.