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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

7/30-8/3/12

August 3, 2012
U.S. stocks started sharply ahead on Friday, shaving weekly losses, after the July nonfarm payrolls report proved better than expected, even as the unemployment rate rose to 8.3%. Market analysts also pointed to speculation that Spain would soon make a formal request for aid, with that nation's 10-year government yields falling under 7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 169 points, or 1.3%, to 13,047. The S&P 500 index climbed 18 points, or 1.4%, to 1,383. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 36 points, or 1.3%, to 2,946. Pretty impressive rally as investors focus on the bright side seeing an improvement in US employment. The better than expected data has the risk on trade this morning. The techs are sharply higher with all the big caps up 1.2% or better. LinkedIn is jumping 13% on better than expected earnings. SAP has to pay Oracle $306 million for copyright infringement yet the stock is higher by 3%. Oracle is higher by a percent and a half. Every sector is trading higher this morning. Stocks trading higher on earnings include CBS, St Joe, Kraft, Toyota, P&G, Fluor, and American Water. In the energy space CF Industries is higher by 5% on an upgrade. The company will report earnings next week. Agrium is unchanged on earnings while rare earth metal play, Molycorp is down 21% on disappointing earnings. Through the first hour the averages kept pushing higher with the Dow jumping 220 points and the Nasdaq rising 55 points. Investors are warming up to this market again. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages moved pretty much sideways. Very few stocks are in the red. In fact Verizon is the only Dow component to trade in the red. In the last hour the averages drifted off the highs, but not by much. What a turnaround. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 217 points, or 1.7%, to 13,096, up 0.2% for the week. The S&P 500 index added 25 points, or 1.9%, to 1,390, leaving it 0.4% higher from last week's close. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 58 points, or 2%, to 2,967.90, a weekly rise of 0.3%.

August 2, 2012
U.S. stocks began Thursday in a steep decline as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failed to deliver hoped for action to address Europe's debt crisis. "He essentially came out last week and put his reputation on the line by promising they'll do whatever it takes, and he failed on that," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners LLC in New York. At a news conference in Frankfurt, Draghi said euro-zone members have to be ready to begin the European Financial Stability Facility. "The market was hoping for some type of intervention in the way of buying the debt of the countries that are in trouble," said Pavlik. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 86 points to 12,885. The S&P 500 index declined 11 points to 1,364. The Nasdaq Composite lost 16 points to 2,903. While the markets are focused on the lack of stimulus coming out of Europe, the earnings reports over here keep coming in. In the insurance space Prudential and MetLife look good as both are trading up over 3%. Lincoln National is jumping 7% on earnings while Hartford is down a percent. Hartford can't seem to get out of its' own way. The rest of the financial space is selling off following the European lead. In the retail space Weight Watchers, American Eagle, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Sony are all sharply lower on earnings while Kelloggs and Macys are up 3% on earnings. A sharp sell-off to start the day didn't last. Through the first hour the averages rebounded only to sell back off. Through the morning the averages pushed lower with the Dow dropping over 150 points while the Nasdaq declined 25 points. In the afternoon the averages slowly improved. In the last hour the averages kept improving as the Nasdaq pared its' losses to 13 points as Apple moved into the green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 92 points at 12,878. The S&P 500 index shed 10 points to 1,365. The Nasdaq Composite declined 10 points to 2,909.

August 1, 2012
U.S. stocks began higher Wednesday with the Federal Reserve viewed as likely to leave the door open to further stimulus when it releases its policy decision in the afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50 points to 13,058. The S&P 500 index climbed 3 points to 1,383. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 11 points to 2,950. Investors are awaiting the Fed meeting this afternoon while earnings keep flooding in. In the retail space Papa Johns is jumping 8% on better than expected earnings. Rival Dominoes is higher as well. Burger King is unchanged on earnings. Hyatt Hotels and Garmin are both up 3% on earnings. Owens Corning, Dollar Thrifty, and Harley Davidson are lower on earnings. Harley is down 7%. In the tech space BMC Software, DreamWorks, and Atmel are all lower by 4% or more. The big caps like Google, Apple, and IBM look good. In the financial space Allstate is jumping 7% on earnings while rival Genworth is lower by 5%. Mastercard is down 3% on earnings. In the energy patch Pioneer Natural Resources and Phillip 66 are higher on earnings. Devon Energy is lower by 4% on earnings. The energy space in general is performing much better. Through the first hour weaker than expected manufacturing data caused the averages to pull back, but remained in the green. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages remained quiet ahead of the Fed minutes. At 2:15pm, the Fed did nothing causing the averages to sell off. The Dow dropped 100 points for the day while the Nasdaq declined 20 points. But like every recent sell off, the averages fought back on hopes of a stimulus out of Europe tomorrow. The markets seem to be riding every comment about fiscal stimulus. The averages fought their way back to the unchanged level only to give up the gains once again in the last hour. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 32.55 points at 12,976. The S&P 500 index shed 4 points to 1,375. The Nasdaq Composite lost 19 points to 2,920.

July 31, 2012
U.S. stocks began mainly lower Tuesday after reports that the German Finance Ministry said it did not see any need to give the European Stability Mechanism a bank license. "The Germans want the big bazooka kept on the sidelines," Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, emailed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12 points to 13,060. The S&P 500 index lost a fraction to 1,385 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 8 points to 2,954. The markets are quiet, but plenty of stocks are moving today. In the tech space chipmaker Cirrus Logic is jumping 22% on earnings. Why is this company doing so well? They are a big supplier to Apple. Apple is jumping nearly 2% on these earnings recouping virtually all the losses from last weeks' earnings. Kulicke and Soffa is higher by 7% on earnings. On the flip side, Seagate is down 5% on disappointing earnings. Seagate's numbers are holding back Intel and AMD. In fact, outside Apple and Cirrus, the techs are quiet. In the industrial space, Cummins Engines is higher by 5% following earnings. The stock got hit in June after the company lowered estimates, but has since recouped a lot of the losses particularly following todays' gains. The rest of the industrials are lower. In the healthcare space, Humana is down 8% on disappointing earnings. This continues a trend of the HMOs trading off since the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare. Pfizer and Aetna are modestly higher on earnings. In the energy space US Steel is jumping 4% on earnings. Valero Energy is higher by 5% on earnings. Archer Daniels is down 4% after missing estimates. In the retail space Goodyear and Hertz are higher on earnings while Texas Roadhouse and Coach are lower on earnings. Coach is down 8%. Through the first hour the better than expected manufacturing and consumer confidence numbers did little to boost the markets. Through the first hour the Dow remained in the red while the Nasdaq rose modestly thanks in large part to Apple. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages remained quiet and in the red. The tech sector thanks to Apple and a select number of other techs are holding up, but that's about it. In the last hour the averages drifted lower on no news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 64 points at 13,008, up 1% from the end of June. The S&P 500 index retreated 5 points to 1,379, up 1.3% for July. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 6 points to 2,939, up 0.2% for the month.

July 30, 2012
U.S. stocks on Monday began by wavering between tepid gains and losses, with investors hesitant after a two-session surge ahead of anticipated central-bank talk in the days ahead. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 2 points to 13,073. The S&P 500 index lost half a point to 1,385. The Nasdaq Composite added 8 points to 2,966. Shortly after the open the averages moved into the green. The bulls aren't done with this rally even though we may be a little overbought in the short run. On the earnings front, Franklin Resources and HSBC are higher on earnings. Visa and Mastercard look good, while CNA Financial is lower on earnings. JP Morgan, Annaly, and Pulte Group are lower on downgrades. Speaking of CNA Financial, parent company Loews Group is lower by 3% on earnings. Boardwalk Pipeline is unchanged in earnings. In the energy space, Phillips 66 is higher by 2% on an upgrade. In the tech space Apple and Google look great after a big surge last week. The industrial sector is struggling except for Roper Industries up 6% on in line earnings and raised guidance. Through the first hour the averages pushed higher with the Dow rising 50 points and the Nasdaq rising 14 points. After the first hour the averages pulled back as the utilities and consumer staples perked up. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages remained in the red, but not by much. Apple looks good in the tech space, but the rest of the sector is under pressure. In the last hour the averages bought back toward positive territory, but came up short. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2 points at 13,073, led by a 2% drop in J.P. Morgan Chase. The Dow has declined for the ninth straight Monday making it the longest stretch since 1939. The S&P 500 fell less than a point to 1,385. The Nasdaq Composite fell 12 points to 2,946.