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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

9/4-9/7/12

September 7, 2012
Stocks got off to a mixed start after this morning's jobs data proved to be a disappointment. The anemic numbers turned into yet another argument in favor of additional easing while lower guidance from a technology bellwether contributed to a divergence in the major averages. The S&P 500 finished higher by 0.4% while the Nasdaq ended flat. Nonfarm payrolls were reported at 96K versus the 130K Briefing.com consensus. The prior reading was revised down to 141K from 163K. In addition, nonfarm private payrolls added 103K against the 144K consensus. Separately, the unemployment rate was reported at 8.1% versus the 8.3% consensus estimate as the dip in the unemployment rate was attributed to more people leaving the workforce. Major financials rallied after disappointing jobs data sparked another round of quantitative easing hopes. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 15.68, +0.16) advanced 1.0% as Bank of America (BAC 8.80, +0.45) and Morgan Stanley (MS 17.08, +0.83) gained over 5.0% each. Other major names showed less robust advances as Citigroup (C 32.06, +0.94) and Goldman Sachs (GS 116.33, +2.79) added 3.0% and 2.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, European financials continued their exuberance for the second day in a row. Barclays (BCS 13.17, +0.86) and Deutsche Bank (DB 40.20, +2.59) jumped near 7.0% each. Stocks listed in the Dow underperformed the broader market as two notable components showed weakness. Kraft Foods (KFT 39.99, -2.32) slid 5.5% after providing an update on its planned spin-off. Beginning October 1, 2012 the company will separate into two entities. Kraft Foods Group which will hold the North America grocery business will begin trading under the ticker 'KRFT' while Kraft Foods will be renamed Mondelez International and trade under the symbol 'MDLZ.' Today's weakness came after the company announced it expects Kraft Foods full-year 2013 earnings at $2.60 per share. Meanwhile, technology companies within the index are slumped after Intel (INTC 24.19, -0.90) cut its third quarter guidance below consensus. The technology bellwether slid 3.6% while Cisco (CSCO 19.56, -0.16), Microsoft (MSFT 30.95, -0.39), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 17.42, -0.17) lost between 0.8% and 1.5%. Technology stocks outside of the Dow were also under pressure after Intel's guidance cut. Peer AMD (AMD 3.45, -0.21) slumped 5.7% while related names, NVIDIA (NVDA 13.40, -0.33) and Micron (MU 6.42, -0.25) slipped 2.4% and 3.8%, respectively.The materials sector settled higher by 2.0% as it outperformed other sectors. Over the past two days, China announced plans to increase infrastructure spending which may bode well for basic materials demand. Iron and steel names showed biggest gains as Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 39.91, +5.05) jumped 14.5%. Meanwhile, United States Steel (X 20.89, +1.68), AK Steel (AKS 5.78, +0.41), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 39.43, +3.09) posted advances near 8.0%. Within the healthcare space, biotechnology stocks weighed on the rest of the sector. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI 91.59, -0.43) slipped 0.5%. Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI 12.01, -0.59) posted the biggest loss within the group as it finished lower by 4.7%. Meanwhile, Medivation (MDVN 105.65, -2.97) and Theravance (THRX 23.91, -0.28) fell 2.7% and 1.2%, respectively. On the upside, pharmaceutical company Peregrine (PPHM 4.50, +1.43) surged 46.6% after reporting that its Bavituximab drug has doubled the median overall survival rate in lung cancer patients who are taking part in the company's phase II trial. Internet radio provider Pandora (P 10.47, -2.10) slumped 16.7% after reports suggested Apple (AAPL 680.44, +4.17) may include internet radio on its devices and integrate the service into its iTunes store. Apple finished higher by 0.6% after marking a fresh all-time high at $681.50 while today's selling has dropped shares of Pandora back to levels last seen before its August 30 earnings report.
The Dow industrials closed up 14 points at 13,306, its highest since Dec. 2007. The Nasdaq Composite edged up by 0.6 point to 3,136, its highest since Nov. 2000, and the S&P 500 ended up 5 points higher at 1,437.92, its highest since Jan. 2008

September 6th 2012
U.S. stocks rallied Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers had agreed to unlimited bond purchases to get the upper hand on the region's debt crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 137 points to 13,185. The S&P 500 index rose 14 points to 1,417. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 29 points to 3,099. Limited amount of news this morning other than the European business. The financials are benefitting the most from the European rally. Most of the big banks are up over 2% with JP Morgan up 4%. The beaten up sectors like materials, industrials, and energy are all performing well. Cliffs Natural Resources was downgraded, but the stock is higher for a second day in row. The defensive sectors like the utilities and consumer staples are under performing today. Through the first hour the averages exploded, first in Europe with Spanish and Italian yields dropping dramatically, followed by our averages surging another 100 points in the Dow. After 11 o'clock moved sideways, literally. Everything is in the green. The next big news event comes tomorrow morning with the nonfarm payroll number. In the last hour the averages modestly pulled back only to rebound to the highs of the day by the close. Impressive rally.

September 5th 2012,
U.S. stocks wavered lower Wednesday as global-growth concerns competed with optimism about the European Central Bank's bond-buying plan after Bloomberg News reported the proposal would involve unlimited purchases. "If the ECB can address the dysfunction in the bond market, it's a good step," said John Canally, an investment strategist at LPL Financial in Boston. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2 points to 13,033. The S&P 500 Index fell nearly 2 points to 1,403. The Nasdaq Composite fell 8 points to 3,066. The weakest sector this morning goes to the transportation average following a preannouncement from FedEx last night. FedEx is lower by 3%. Union Pacific reaffirmed earnings, but the stock is lower. The tech sector opened lower except for Google. AMD is lower by 3% on a downgrade. Intel and ARM Holding got hit yesterday, but are bouncing back today. Facebook is higher by 3% on an upgrade and news CEO, Mark Zuckerberg will not sell any of his stock for a year. Through the first half an hour the averages pushed lower only to rebound into the green. The financials look good. Hartford is up for once on news the company continues to spin off or sell divisions. Allstate and UBS are higher on upgrades. Capital One is modestly lower after announcing a secondary offering. After the first hour the averages kept improving with the Dow rising 50 points. The Nasdaq rose just 5 points as Apple remains one of the weakest techs. The transports remain the weakest sector, but even FedEx has rebounded off its' lows. Resilient market. In the afternoon the averages rebounded only to lose a little steam into the close. Perfect example is FedEx that rebounded in the middle of the afternoon only to fall back into the close. The Dow industrials closed up 11 points at 13,047. The Nasdaq Composite edged down 5 points to 3,069, while the S&P 500 ended down a point at 1,403.

September 4th 2012,
U.S. stocks opened slightly lower Tuesday ahead of data on American manufacturing and as European leaders readied for discussions on the region's debt crisis. "More European meetings this week, unemployment reports and the Fed meeting in two weeks will keep investors cautious," emailed Paul Nolte, managing director at Dearborn Partners in Chicago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 17 points to 13,073. The S&P 500 index retreated half a point to 1,406. The Nasdaq Composite gained a fraction to 3,067. A quiet start to the week with a couple mergers over the weekend. Medicis Pharma is jumping 38% after agreeing to be acquired by Valeant Pharma. Valeant is higher by 15% as well. The rest of the healthcare space is under pressure. In the oil space, Heckmann is up 17% after agreeing to be acquired. The oils are also under pressure this morning. Petrobras Brasileiro was upgraded, but the stock is lower. The energy space is under pressure as well. The industrials are also coming under pressure. The Chinese, Shanghai index is lower now at a 3 ˝ year low as China's growth continues to slow. Caterpillar is down 3% on heavy volume. In the tech space, Apple looks good, but the rest of the sector is under pressure. Arm Holdings is down 8% on a downgrade. Intel is lower as well. JPMorgan lowered their price target on Facebook. That stock is lower by a percent. IBM opened higher thanks to an upgrade, but the stock is now lower. Through the first hour, weaker than expected manufacturing numbers sent the averages lower. The Dow dropped 100 points while the Nasdaq declined 25 points. In the retail space, Gamestop is higher by 5% on an upgrade. Tivo is higher by 2% on an upgrade. Campbell Soup is higher after beating earnings estimates. Netflix is down 7% on concerns of increased rivalry with Amazon. Through the morning the averages remained weak near the lows of the day. The transportation average is retesting its summer low. The defensive sectors like the utilities and consumer staples. In the afternoon the averages rebounded off the lows even though the energy, materials, and industrials remain weak. The Nasdaq bounced back thanks to Apple up a percent on news the iphone5 will come out September 12th. By the middle of the afternoon news leaked out that Europe is ready to move to shore up their countries which prompted Bill Gross to tweet to investors to buy gold. Ironically, gold has been performing well of late. In the last hour the averages pulled back once again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 54 points at 13,035. The S&P 500 lost a point to 1,404. The Nasdaq Composite gained 8 points to 3,075.

Sept 3, 2012
Closed for Labor day.