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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

11/3-11/7/2008

October 7, 2008
U.S. stocks opened higher on Friday after two days of steep losses. We knew the economic news would get worse and now we're finding out some of the numbers. The October unemployment rate jumped to a 14-year high of 6.5% with nearly a quarter million jobs lost. As typical with this market, we rally on bad news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 97 points to 8,793. The S&P 500 jumped 8 points to 913, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 18 points to 1,626. Through the first hour, the averages started to pull back, but then rallied once again. The financials are higher, but not by much. It didn't take Goldman Sachs long to fall into the red. Genworth Financials is down 40% on dismal numbers. Wells Fargo is down 4% after pricing their $11 billion in new shares. The techs look good so far today. Qualcomm is up 8% after beating estimates. I forgot companies could beat estimates. Through the morning and into the afternoon the averages improved, but it doesn't feel like much of a rally. Disney opened lower today, but is now up 6% after missing estimates this morning. One stock doing better than Disney is Fluor Corp up 23%. The industrial company beating estimates and actually raised guidance. Wow. In the afternoon, the Dow rallied as much as 250 points before President elect Obama's speech. Entering the last hour, the Dow was up only 125 points. In the last hour the averages actually rebounded. Corning is higher on insider buying. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 248 points to close at 8,943, giving it a weekly loss of 4.1%. The S&P 500 climbed 25 points to 930, off 3.9% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 38 points to 1,647, but dropped 4.3% on the week.


November 6, 2008
U.S. stocks opened lower following grim October retail sales reports, a rise in jobless claims, and less than stellar earnings from Cisco Systems. Rate cuts over seas did little to improve investors sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 54 points to 9,084. The S&P 500 declined 8 points to 944, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 13 points to 1,668.12. Cisco is down 3% even though they beat estimates. The techs in general are trading lower. Yahoo is up on rumors of a buy out. Most of the financials are modestly higher after getting clobbered yesterday. Wells Fargo is lower afteissuingng more shares. Blackstone is down 9% on a wider quarterly loss. More rumors of big job cuts coming from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Morgan Stanley believes Goldman will report a fourth quarter loss. The retailers are holding in there even though October sales were awful. Gap is up 4% after maintaining guidance. More earnings keep coming in from Budweiser, Cedar
Fair, Auto Nation, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, Whole Foods, National Financial Partners, Huntsman, Tyco Electronics, Imax, and Office Max. Toyota is down 14% following disappointing earnings. Through the first hour, the Dow fell to new lows over 175 points below 9000. Here we go again. The Nasdaq declined 32 points. Through the morning and into the afternoon, the averages remained weak. The Dow fell 400 points, 900 points in the last two days. The Nasdaq declined 62 pointts. Entering the last hour, the averages remained near the lows of the day and then pushed lower into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 443 points, or 4.9%, to 8,695. The S&P 500 declined 47 points, or 5%, to 904, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 72 points, or 4.3%, to end at 1,608. A declined of 10% in two days. Not good.



November 5, 2008
U.S. stocks opened lower on Wednesday following the largest Election Day rally in more than two decades. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 147 points to 9,478. The S&P 500 declined 16 points to 989, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 27 points to 1,752. A little profit taking is understandable following the land slide victory for the Democrats. Wallstreet typically prefers a divided goverment. Earnings keep coming in. Bond insurers Ambac, MBIA, and GMAC all reported huge losses. The oils companies keep posting big profits, but investors don't care. Transocean, Devon Energy, and Duke Energy are all lower on good earnings reports. Alternative energy, Sunpower is down 22% on earnings. Steel company, Arcelor Mittal is down 18% on earnings. Foster Wheeler and Textron are both down 3%. Polo Ralph Lauren is down 2% after beating estimates by 33 cents. Not much is working this morning. Molson Coors and Agrium are higher following earnings. Research in Motion
is higher thanks to an upgrade. After the first hour the averages slowly recovered. I guess the Democrats are in buying. Through the morning, heading into the lunch hour, the averages were making new lows. During the lunch hour, the Dow fell 300 points giving up all of yesterday's gains. The Nasdaq declined 57 points. The averages remained weak through the afternoon. The commodities keep coming down expect for Chesapeake Energy. That stock is up 12% on rumors of a buyout. In the last hour, more selling. So much for the election euphoria.

November 4, 2008
U.S. stocks opened solidly higher ahead of the results for today's election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 189 points to 9,509. The S&P 500 gained 18 points to 984, while the Nasdaq Composite added 27 points to 1,754. More earnings today than yesterday. Mastercard had the best results. The stock is up 10% after beating estimates by 22 cents. Most of the financials are higher except for Goldman Sachs. Goldman had another hedge fund report huge losses. The commodities are having a nice day as some believe an Obama victory would be good for the sector, particularly alternative energy. Rowan is up 7% following earnings. In the tech sector Autodesk and Netsuite are lower on earnings. Cisco is higher thanks to an upgrade and earnings coming out tomorrow. Google, Apple, Yahoo, and Research in Motion are higher. Other companies reporting earnings include Tenet Healthcare, Dean Foods, ADP, St Joe, Marvel Entertainment, and Louisiana Pacific. Louisiana
Pacific and ADP are higher while the rest are lower. Dean Foods and Tenet Healthcare are both down 16%. Through the first hour the averages remained strong, but off the highs. GE is up 5% on rumors they may be able to access the Treasury's Tarp plan. After the first hour the averages pushed higher. The Dow rose over 220 points. The Nasdaq rose 40 points. So far so good. In the afternoon, the Dow rose over 300 points before pulling back. The Nasdaq jumped 60 points before pulling back. The commodities continue to perform well. Entering the last hour, the Dow was up 175 points. The Nasdaq rose 30 points. Healthcare stocks have sold off along with a number of retail stocks. In the last hour, the averages reaccelerated. I guess you couls call this the Obama rally.


November 3, 2008
Finally, October is over. The averages start higher as money comes in to start a new month and a new calender year for most mutual funds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 24 points to 9,349. Good news, Boeing is halting its strike. Bad news, Goldman Sachs says sell the stock into any strength. The S&P 500 climbed a points to 970, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2 points to 1,723. The averages pushed higher ahead of pending weak economic data. Earnings season is slowing down. Goodyear is up 13% after beating estimates. Dryships is up 18% on good earnings. Sysco foods is modestly lower after missing estimates. Cisco Systems reports later this week. Over the weekend we had our 17th bank go under. It was a small firm in Florida and Fifth Third will take it over. Fifth Third is up 5%. The insurance stocks continue to rebound. Hartford is up 19% as the companny stated they are well capitalized. At 10 o'clock, weak manufacturing data brought the
sellers back in giving up virtually all the gains. A select number of techs are higher including Apple, Research in Motion, and Baidu. Baidu announced a $200 million share buyback. Through the morning the averages clung to positive territory. The commodities are weak. In the afternoon, not much changed. The averages are very quiet holding above the unchanged level ahead of tomorrow's election. Watch and wait mode. A few select stocks are moving. Goldman Sachs is weak after Dick Bove downgraded the firm. The commodities remain weak. Best Buy is up 4% on news Circuit City is closing more stores. As the afternoon progressed, the averages gave up their gains except for the insurance stocks. They keep surging. In the last hour the averages gravitated back to the unchanged level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 5 points to 9,319. The S&P 500 declined 2 points to 966, while the Nasdaq Composite added 5 points to 1,726.