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Leigh Baldwin & Co.

112 Albany Street, Cazenovia, NY 13035 | Phone: (315) 655-2964 Toll Free: 1-800-659-8044

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The Week In Review

11/24-11/28

November 28, 2008
After a four day, 20% rally in the broader averages, the markets are set to open lower this morning. After resting up yesterday, shoppers are hitting the malls looking for bargains. Today is officially Black Friday when many retailers move into the black for the year regarding profits. But this is no ordinary year. In fact this could be the worst holiday season in half a century. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 10 points to 8,717. The S&P 500 index opened unchanged at 888, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 7 points to 1,525. The Dow moved quickly into the green thanks to the financials. Citigroup is up 10% while Bank of America is up 2%. Citigroup is up 100% from last Friday's low. Bank of America is up 50% since last Friday's low. Timing is everthing. After the first half an hour the averages were back in the red while the financials remained in the green. The commodities are lower. Saudi Arabia does not want to cut oil production. That's good news. Chesapeake Energy is down 20% on concerns the company has to raise $2 billion in capital thus diluting current shareholders. Most techs are lower. Intel received a downgrade. Yahoo is up 3% on news Carl Icahn raised his stake. The retail stores are full, but the stocks are all lower. It's not going to be a merry holiday. After the first hour, the Dow was up 12 points. The Nasdaq in the red by 12 points. Through the morning the averages remained quiet not far from the unchanged level. Citigroup is up 16% on positive comments from UBS. Entering the lunch hour the Dow was up by 50 points. Can we go up for five straight days? The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 102 points at 8,829. For the week, the blue-chip average jumped 9.2%, while it fell 5.3% for the month. The S&P 500 index rose 8 points, or 1%, to 896. The broad index gained 12% for the week, but fell 7.4% for the month. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3 points to 1,535. The technology-heavy index jumped 11% for the week and had a monthly loss of 10.8%.



November 27, 2008

Closed. Happy Thanksgiving!


November 26, 2008
U.S. stocks opened lower on Wednesday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak, after weak durable goods orders from October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158 points to 8,320. The S&P 500 shed 15 points to 842, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 13 points to 1,451. The economic data is pointing to a harsh recession. The retailers keep posting bad earnings from the likes of Dillards, Tiffany, J. Crew, Talbots, Coldwater Creek, and Delias. J. Crew and Dillards are both down 10%. Deere posted a 18% drop in earnings. The stock is down 10% today and down 66% since June yet the news was not that bad. Sales will slow next year, but Deere expects to make $2 billion in earnings or over $4 a share. That means the stock is trading for 7 times earnings and yet no one wants to buy it. Crazy. After the first half an hour the averages kept recovering. The financials are lower except for Citigroup. That stock is up 6% partly on news a Mexican billionaire
bought a big stake in the firm last week. After the first hour, the Dow was down 70 points. The Nasdaq was in the green by 10 points. President-elect, Obama made a third speech in as many days introducing a new economic advisory team. The averages were were able to claw their way back to the unchanged level during his speech. During the lunch hour the Dow moved into the green thanks to Citigroup and GM, two of its worse performing components. Citi is up 15% while GM is up 50%. Not bad. The averages remained in the green even as we learned of terrorist attacks in India. Heading into the last hour the averages accelerated to the upside. In the last hour the Dow jumped over 200 points. The Nasdaq improved by 52 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 247 points, or 3%, at 8,726. The S&P 500 index gained 30 points, or 3.5%, to 887, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 67 points, or 4.6%, to end at 1,532. The S&P is up 20% in the last four days.
Not bad.


November 25, 2008
U.S. stocks open higher once again, extending the market's biggest two-day jump in two decades. Today's rally is getting help from the Federal Reserve initiating two new programs to help resurrect dormant consumer loans and hopefully revive the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 106 points to 8,550. The S&P 500 climbed 13 points to 865, while the Nasdaq Composite added 3 points to 1,475. The financials are up once again including Citigroup. Goldman Sachs is higher following a strong bond sale. Morgan Stanley is higher following an upgrade. Bank of Montreal is up 7% on strong sales. The Canadian banks are being run much better than our own banks. Homebuilders Lennar and D.R. Horton are strong after lousy earnings. The retail stocks are trying to rally even though business is bad. American Eagle, Talbots, and Chicos had dismal earnings yet all three are modestly higher. Abercrombie & Fitch is up 10% on an upgrade. The commodity stocks are not
participating in the rally and many techs are lower. Apple, Research in Motion, Cisco, HP, and Microsoft are all lower. Google did not participate in the rally yesterday, but is the stock is up 8% today on news of some cost cuts. After the first hour, the Dow remained up 100 points. The Nasdaq dropped into the red by 10 points. Through the morning the averages gave up their gains. The Nasdaq dropped further while the Dow fell into the red. Citigroup and JP Morgan are still in the green while the rest of the financials are trying to hold in there. The averages were not far from the unchanged level entering the lunch hour. In the afternoon we accelerated to the downside. Even Citigroup fell into the red. In the last hour Moodys upgraded Morgan Stanley's debt to stable from negative causing the stock and the financials to rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 36 points to end at 8,479. The S&P 500 climbed 5 points to 857, while the Nasdaq
Composite declined 7 points to 1,464.

November 24, 2008
U.S. stocks opened higher on Monday, extending the prior session's solid gains, with bank shares in particular bolstered by Citigroup's 11th-hour rescue package from the government. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 134 points to 8,180. The S&P 500 rose 15 points to 815, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 26 points to 1,410. Citigroup is up a mere 55%, but shareholders get diluted and the dividend goes away. Most financials are higher. US Bancorp, Suntrust, and Ameriprise were all upgraded. UBS is up 10% on news they say they need no capital injection. Berkshire Hathaway is higher on positive comments in Barrons. In the first half an hour, the averages started to give up some of the gains, but then reaccelerated following in line housing sales data. Xerox is up 11% after reiterating guidance for next year. J.Crew and Walmart are higehr on upgrades. Cigna is up 9% on an upgrade, helping lift the healthcare sector. After the first hour the Dow was
up 200 points. The Nasdaq rose 40 points. A few stocks are lowering including Google. Campbell Soup is down 8% after beating estimates and then cutting guidance due to the stronger dollar. After the first the Dow rose over 300 points. The Nasdaq improved by 50 points. So far so good. In the afternoon the averages remained strong. Most stocks are trading higher. The sellers and the shorts are taking the day off. Entering the last hour the averages remained strong with the Dow up 300 poinrs. The financials look good. In the tech sector Apple looks great, but Google and HP are lower. The commodities are performing well except for the fertilizers. In the last hour the averages shot higher, rallying over 500 points, 1000 points in two days. Understandably, we saw a little profit taking into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 396 points, or 4.9%, to end at 8,443. The S&P 500 added 51 points, or 6.5%, to 851. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 87
points, or 6.3%, to 1,472.